Excited for Brady vs. Manning Part XVI? These two Hall of of Famers go at it once again, and as always it should make for a great X’s and O’s chess match. Let’s analyze what we could see when each team has the ball.
WHEN DENVER HAS THE BALL
I’ve previously written about how Denver loves to use Tight End Julius Thomas as a threat from the Dakota formation. How will New England match up? Expect Darrelle Revis to play plenty of man to man on Broncos Demaryius Thomas, and Kyle Arrington to follow Wes Welker in the slot. With that, what if 6’5 250 Julius Thomas splits out wide? Most teams must match up either a Safety or Linebacker against Julius Thomas, which reveals the Defense and creates match up problems elsewhere and opens up the running game. However, expect New England to occasionally match up 6’4 220 Brandon Browner in man to man coverage when Julius Thomas splits out wide. This allows Safety Devin McCourty (#32) to remain the middle of the field and also allows Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91) in the box to play the run. (These would be the other two candidates to cover Julius Thomas). The Patriots appeared to implement a form of this strategy last week against the Bears, where Browner was matched up man to man with 6’6 265 Martellus Bennett:
If Browner can play well against Julius Thomas, expect Emmanuel Sanders to see a heavy dose of targets with either Logan Ryan or Alfonzo Dennard on Sanders. The Patriots play man to man coverage the vast majority of the time, and the Broncos will try and take advantage via crossing routes. Finally, watch out for the Denver running game. In both of last year’s NE v. Den matchups, Denver running backs had back breaking long runs on 3rd & 10+. This is something New England will allow occasionally with the strategy of “every run is one less Manning pass” using a soft Cover 5.
WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL
Like New England, Denver is a heavy man to man coverage defense. Broncos Safety T.J. Ward will likely spend some time covering Rob Gronkowski. This won’t be the first time these two see each other, as Ward delivered the hit to blow out Gronk’s knee last season while playing for the Browns. Last week, the Chargers took advantage of T.J. Ward on Antonio Gates for two touchdowns:
Will the Patriots take advantage of this matchup? Will the Broncos keep Ward on Gronk? If they do, expect New England to attack this matchup. The Broncos may also decide to help Ward with Safety Rahim Moore, leaving an opening for Tim Wright or Julian Edelman. One other possibility is to play Aqib Talib on Gronk in some occasions. Last year, Aqib Talib followed Jimmy Graham around the field and held him to 0 catches. However, as a Bronco, Talib has almost exclusively played on the offensive right side. Talib and Chris Harris have arguably been the best Cornerback duo in the NFL so far this year. With that, expect New England to target rookie slot corner Bradley Roby with Julian Edelman.
Enjoy Brady vs. Manning 16!