Week 13 features a cross-conference matchup between the two hottest teams in the NFL, the Packers v. Patriots. Let’s take a further look at what to expect in this potential Superbowl 49 showdown:
WHEN GREEN BAY HAS THE BALL
In their last two games against some of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses (Colts & Broncos), the Patriots shut down the opponent’s run game early and forced obvious passing situations with New England in the lead during the 2nd half. (Broncos under 40 yards rushing, Colts under 20 yards rushing). This plays right into Belichick’s hands, as he wants to primarily stay in either Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel (3 S), or Penny (4 CB 1 S) personnel. Expect New England to be in some kind of sub-package (More than 4 DB’s) for most of the game. With that, Green Bay should try to establish some kind of run game in the 1st half to make the Patriots Safeties downhill players. However, Vince Wilfork and recent acquisition Alan Branch have done a good job against the run, and the Packers have had struggles of their own in the run game. While Eddie Lacy was able to seal the game late last week, Minnesota was able to effectively stop the run in the 1st half multiple times with Nickel Personnel (2 LB 5 DB), even when Green Bay played with a Tight End or Fullback (seen below). Overall, the success or failure of the Packers run game will likely be essential for how the Patriots use their defensive personnel.
Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary
The Patriots have used Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in different ways against the Colts and Broncos. While Revis may match up against Jordy Nelson at times, the Packers don’t have a big Tight End for Brandon Browner to match up with when this occurs. (When Revis covered a #1 Big WR, Browner covered Julius Thomas, Martellus Bennett or Coby Fleener). Browner could move inside the box for a bigger body to stop the run if Revis covers Nelson. The Patriots likely want to avoid using Browner against Randall Cobb because of his struggles against smaller, quicker Wide Receivers.
With Browner on Nelson for much of the game, the Patriots will likely try and take away what has made the Rodgers-Nelson combination so deadly: short easy completions against off coverage, and deep throws against press coverage. Belichick will take away what the opponent does best, and the Packers use the short easy completion to Jordy Nelson against soft (no hands on WR) coverage for chunks of yardage 4-5 times a game. In their most recent tear, the Packers scored 50 points in two consecutive games by gashing soft coverage from the Eagles and the Bears. The Vikings challenged Packer Wideouts more, but still were not overly physical with them:
When a defense tries to challenge Jordy Nelson, he can counter with a double move and Rodger’s accuracy takes care of the rest:
While Jordy is certainly one of the best Wide Receivers in the game, there aren’t many 6’4 220 pound cornerbacks who will play as physical at the line of scrimmage as Browner. Browner’s coverage will almost certainly come with Safety help, as seen against Denver and Detroit (Browner against Demaryius Thomas & Calvin Johnson with Safety help). Devin McCourty will probably provide Safety help most of the time. Keep an eye out for Safety #30 Duron Harmon: Harmon usually only plays sub-packages and obvious passing downs, but the Patriots almost exclusively use him as a Deep Half defender in either Cover 2 or Cover 5 (Man-under 2 deep). Rodgers will use him as a coverage indicator.
The other match ups should include Revis covering Cobb (#18) for the majority of the game. Revis is a more complete corner than Browner and can handle slot duties. Look for Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of Belichick’s game plan in two ways: First, run the ball effectively as mentioned above, and second, look to his other match ups. Rookie Wide Receiver Davonte Adams (#17) has gained Rodgers trust, has excellent speed, and will likely draw true 1 on 1 coverage (no help) against Alfonzo Dennard (#37), Kyle Arrington (#25), Logan Ryan (#26), or Malcolm Butler (#21). This is something to look for on game day: Kyle Arrington has usually drawn the smaller, shiftier, or faster Wide Receivers, (Welker, T.Y. Hilton) but also primarily plays in the slot. Belichick could go a couple of ways here: he could move Arrington outside (unlikely), or simply play Arrington less in favor of outside corners like Ryan, Dennard and/or Butler. If Arrington is in the game, it will likely be in the slot against Cobb with help, and Browner/Revis matching up against Adams/Jordy. The other matchup Rodgers will look to is his Tight End (Richard Rodgers or Andrew Quarless) against Safety Patrick Chung (#23) or Linebacker Jamie Collins (#91).
As for the front-7 in the pass game, as with the Colts and Broncos, don’t expect New England to blitz too much. Instead, the Patriots will need to create pressure with stunts and 4 man rushes featuring Akeem Ayers (#55), Vince Wilfork (#75), Hightower (#54) and Rob Ninkovich (#50).
One final wrinkle to look for: The Patriots run a ton of man-to-man press coverage and the Packers don’t run many stack or bunch formations with crossing patterns. (Packers are primarily spread with 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB). In order to neutralize contact with Wide Receivers and make man to man tougher, Packers Head Coach and play caller Mike McCarthy probably will implement some sort of game plan including bunch/stack formations and route combinations which make it more difficult to play man-to-man.
WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL
The Patriots have shifted game plans on a week to week basis depending on what they feel is the defensive weakness. (39 runs vs. 30 passes against the Colts, 53 passes vs. 20 runs against Detroit). Green Bay has played much better on defense since switching Clay Matthews (#52) to an inside linebacker in Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers 2-4-5 Nickel D against Chicago 3 weeks ago. However, since Matthews has moved inside, Green Bay has yet to play against a a power run team (Chicago was losing big early, and runs mostly zone/trap)(Philly is a mostly inside and outside zone team)(Minnesota had moderate success running, but didn’t use any power schemes).
Expect New England to attack the Green Bay defense using the power run game and play action against the Packers 2-4-5. Green Bay will depend on Defensive Tackle Letroy Guion (#98) to continue his solid play and plug multiple gaps to free A.J. Hawk (#50) and Clay Matthews to make tackles. This is a key matchup, and will decide the fate of the run game. Two weeks ago, the Patriots dominated the Colts 3-4 Defense by using a lineman (#71 Cam Fleming) as an eligible Tight End/extra blocker over thirty times in the game. Cam Fleming, however, was injured at the end of that game and will likely be out this week against the Packers. If the Patriots use a Fullback or different extra lineman as a blocker, the Packers will almost certainly bring a 7th and possibly 8th defender into the box. (Here against the Vikings, the Packers play 8 in the box against a 2RB 2WR 1 TE set):
However, if the Patriots prefer to run against a true 2-4-5 Nickel look, they can do so by coming out with 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB, as seen below:
The Patriots could attack the 2-4-5 in the run game using Zone Split concepts from a 3WR set by taking advantage of Rob Gronkowski’s (#87) ability to be a threat in the pass game as well as a blocker in the run game. The Patriots line all blocks zone, except Gronkowski, who comes back across the formation and hits the last Colts player on the line of scrimmage. The RB, Vereen (#34) attacks just inside of Gronk’s block. One example of this is seen below–The Patriots only ran this once against the Colts, but look for it to be in the playbook against the Packers 2-4-5:
[gfycat data_id="JealousNarrowCuscus" data_autoplay=true data_controls=false data_title=false data_expand=true]If the Patriots are able to establish the run, the play action game will flow from there. Patriots play action success depends largely on whether or not they can handle Julius Peppers (#56). Peppers has had an exceptional season, and since Clay Matthews moved to inside linebacker, Peppers has been asked to be the primary pass rusher. Peppers pass rush can eliminate open Wide Receivers down the field. As seen below, the Patriots have an open Receiver deep after play action, but the pass rush gets enough of Tom Brady to cause an errant throw and a turnover:
Overall, look for the Patriots to have a run-based game plan. However, if the Packers come out early and score, the Patriots would have to abandon this for a more spread based pass attack. This would favor the Packers, as D-coordinator Dom Capers could unleash his array of zone blitzes and use Peppers and Matthews to wreak havoc on the Patriots.